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感染症のダイナミクス
https://doi.org/10.15114/smj.72.23
https://doi.org/10.15114/smj.72.23743d0013-93c9-4e25-bc3e-5c86c25bc2fe
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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n0036472X72323.pdf (466.7 kB)
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Item type | 紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2019-07-31 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | ja | |||||
タイトル | 感染症のダイナミクス | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
タイトル | Dynamics of Infectious Diseases | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | jpn | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Infectious disease | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Time series analysis | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Measles | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Prediction | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Chaos | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
資源タイプ | departmental bulletin paper | |||||
ID登録 | ||||||
ID登録 | 10.15114/smj.72.23 | |||||
ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||
著者 |
鷲見, 紋子
× 鷲見, 紋子× 小林, 宣道 |
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抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Recurrent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as measles, mumps and rubella indicate the fairly strong periodicities accompanied with irregularities. Recently, the prevalence of infectious diseases has been explained in terms of chaotic dynamics. With respect to chaotic time series, it is said that we can make a short-term prediction.In this paper, we present a short review for applications of a newly devised procedure of time series analysis to the incidence data of infectious diseases and the time series numerically generated from a mathematical model, called susceptible / exposed / infectious / recovered (SEIR) model for recurrent infectious disease. Several characteristics to be a measure of chaotic systems were indicated. The present method was successfully used to predict the incidence of measles quantitatively. The mechanism of epidemics of fifteen infectious diseases were classified into the three typical patterns, according to the resemblance of temporal variational structures of the incidence data. Results of the quantitative estimation of the effect of mass vaccinations on measles were also indicated. | |||||
書誌情報 |
札幌医学雑誌 = The Sapporo medical journal en : The Sapporo medical journal 巻 72, 号 3, p. 23-29, 発行日 2003-12-01 |
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ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 0036-472X | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | 札幌医科大学医学部 |